November 2023 Market Update

Your November 2023 Newsletter and stats are in… and wow – a lot of activity and news this month! This is the last newsletter of 2023 so this month’s newsletter is a little longer than usual (haha bedtime reading?). Let’s just jump right into it! The short version of this is on my Instagram or scroll to the bottom for the snapshot. I promise to go back to short and sweet for January 2024. 😊

STATE OF THE MARKET

Inventory decreased month over month in both the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver markets across all housing types. New listings remain slightly below the 10 year average. Year over year, prices have increased. Drilling into the numbers however, prices have declined month-over-month since summer 2023 for many markets. It is notable that apartments in the Fraser Valley remain flat for the past 3 months. There are opportunities I’ll discuss below:

SALES TO ACTIVE LISTING RATIO

Simply put, this ratio is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of active listings for a given period (usually monthly).

• When this factor is below 12% for a sustained period there is usually downward pressures on home prices (think “buyer’s” market).
• Between 12-20% is considered a balanced market.
• Over 20% for sustained periods generally provides upward pressure on home prices (think “seller’s” market).

In 2023 the Sales/Active ratio reached a peak of 37% in March for the Fraser Valley (and 37% for Greater Vancouver in May) for all categories of housing. However, when we break out these numbers by housing type it reveals some interesting data since the 2023 peak (bolded for ease):

• Detached homes: November Sales/Active Listing ratio = 10.6% for Fraser Valley and 12.5% for Greater Vancouver
• Townhomes: November Sales/Active Listing ratio = 24.5% for Fraser Valley and 24.1% for Greater Vancouver
• Apartments: November Sales/Active Listing ratio = 20.2% for Fraser Valley and 19.0% for Greater Vancouver

DAYS ON MARKET

Days on Market (DOM) have also been increasing over the past few months (this is the number of days to sell a home):

• Detached homes: November DOM = 39 up from 31 days in October for Fraser Valley (40 vs 32 for Greater Vancouver)
• Townhomes: November DOM = 29 up from 22 days in October for Fraser Valley (28 vs 21 for Greater Vancouver)
• Apartments: November DOM = 29 up from 28 days in October for Fraser Valley (30 vs 25 for Greater Vancouver)

If looking broadly at the Greater Vancouver detached housing market I’d imagine you won’t be surprised to see there are pressures on home prices with the Sales/Active listing ratio in the “buyer” territory and homes on the market for longer. For sellers I use this analysis to give advice such as, is it a good time to sell in my neighbourhood and to determine competitive pricing. If interested to know how this might impact you – reach out.

Other factors in November that impact the market:

• The BC government is expanding the provincial speculation and vacancy tax (SVT) to 13 additional municipalities.
• The Province introduced Short term rental restrictions
• The Federal Government introduced a “Mortgage Charter”.
• There is one more rate decision from the Bank of Canada on December 6. Current expectation is to hold at current rates until 2024.

My next newsletter will be in January so wishing you and your loved ones all the best over the holiday season. In early 2024 I will be holding a seminar for first time home buyers. If interested in attending or learning more (with no obligations) text me at 604-788-6948 or email tchallengerrealtor@gmail.com and I’ll be in touch.

November 2023 Fraser Valley Market Overview

November 2023 Greater Vancouver Market Overview

1 – The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver consists of the areas of Bowen Island, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

2- The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock