August Market Update

Fraser Valley Buyer’s Market continues…

The market is pretty clearly in Buyer’s Market territory in the Fraser Valley. Jump right to the bottom to see the highlights for Surrey, Mission & Abbotsford.

August was pretty interesting in the Fraser Valley with a slower pace of sales, down -12.7% compared to August 2024. When compared to the previous month, the number of sales were almost 22% lower (July 2025 = 1190 vs August 2025 = 931). Usually you can expect it to be a bit slower in July & August as folks get ready for the back to school period and try to soak up as many sunshine days and summer holidays as possible. Those months are just not reliable data points to draw conclusions. For this reason, I rarely take July and August stats to indicate a “trend”. However, if we look at the number of Active Listings in August 2025 (10,445) this is slightly lower (by approx. -2%) than the same month in 2024 (Aug. 2024 = 10,650). This is a “healthy” level of inventory but combined with the slower pace of sales has allowed buyers a window of opportunity to choose from a variety of options and make bold offers, especially where properties have been on the market for a long period.

Add to this the Sales-To-Active-Listings-Ratio fell to 9% which is well below the 12 – 20% range where the market is considered balanced. In other words – a Buyer’s Market.

Below is a snapshot of the Fraser Valley markets I focus on.

Market Snapshot

Keep in mind that even within these Fraser Valley cities, there are nuances. So while Abbotsford shows a SAR of 8.8% for detached properties indicting a Buyer’s Market, there are differences within the city. Abbotsford East is in balanced territory for the past several months (around 15%) while Abbotsford West is firmly in buyer’s territory (below 12% since the beginning of the year). If you want to know how a specific area is performing just reach out.

My advice to buyers: work with a Realtor that understands the numbers and can help you find ways to get your offer accepted.

My advice to sellers: work with a Realtor that can help you price the property attractively for today’s market. The market highs of 2021/2022 may be gone BUT smartly priced properties in good locations are selling very quickly.

Real Estate Updates

• BC Rent increase: The BC Government has set the allowable rent increase for next year to 2.3%. If you are renting a property (either as a landlord or as a tenant), it is important to know how this number affects you and the rules around rent increases. As a quick reminder:
  • 3 months notice must be provided prior to the rent increase (Notice must be on the specified form)
  • Effective January 1st, 2026 or later, the maximum rent increase is 2.3% for that year
  • Rent can only be increased once per year for a tenant and only by the allowable amount with very few exceptions
  • To learn more go to the Residential Tenancy Branch website

• Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision:

  Recent market data indicates Canada’s GDP shrank by 1.6% in the 2nd quarter. This is the largest decline since the Covid 19 pandemic (remember that?). Today’s unemployment numbers were also announced and show a deterioration to 7.1%. This is an increase of 0.2% and represents a loss of 66,000 jobs. Core Inflation (the BoC’s preferred measure of inflation) has been hovering around 2.5%. Currently there is a 40% chance the Bank of Canada will lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point at their next meeting, September 17th. The Bank of Canada has held rates at 2.75% during the past 3 rate decisions so a reduction may spark some market activity with impacts on both the buyer and seller side. For instance, IF there is a rate reduction, this can improve buyer’s monthly payments. For sellers, this could increase the available pool of qualified buyers. Important! Any change in the BoC interest rate will impact variable rate mortgages and not fixed rate mortgages which are driven by the bond market.

• Mortgage Renewal Wall: Recently I was attending a real estate market analysis and one of the topics was the upcoming mortgage renewal wall. What is the mortgage wall? Approximately 60% of mortgages will be renewing over the next two years. Here’s an excellent BoC article that explains the mortgage renewal wall (click here). There have been many headlines heralding that many homeowners will have to sell as they won’t be able to absorb the increases. While it is an interesting thought, here is the recent analysis from The Bank of Canada:

The Bank of Canada currently thinks 1/3 of mortgage holders will see their mortgage payments increase and about the same number will see mortgage payments decrease. In each of the next two years this breaks down as follows:

• • 2025: 10% will decrease, 20% will see increases, 70% no change in payment at the end of 2025
  • 2026: 24% will decrease, 33% will see increases, 42% no change in payment at the end of 2026

Importantly, the BoC also notes that only 0.5% of all mortgages go into default – even during the peak of the previous 2008 housing crisis. Banks are also required to work with borrowers so while ugly, default is usually the last result. All of this is to say that Canadians should be well-positioned heading into the “wall”.

If you want to explore your options or to discuss any of the topics, contact me directly to start the conversation.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock