Happy first week of school! What a hectic week – but good to see all the little ones back to a routine.

Let’s jump right into things – there’s a lot to cover for August. So without further ado…

The HPI Benchmark prices remains relatively flat (less than 1% change in either direction) in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey. The market continues to be in “balanced” territory with higher available inventory and a slower pace of sales. This gives buyers more selection but also speaks to the importance of pricing your property correctly if you’re a seller.

In the previous two months, there have been two rate cuts by the Bank of Canada to their overnight lending rate. Even with those two cuts, the number of sales transactions remained almost 30% below the 10 year average in the Fraser Valley. On September 4th, the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight rate once again, and currently sits at 4.25%. According to BC Real Estate Association forecasts, this sets the stage for a more robust fall season and I tend to agree based on the increased number of contacts I’ve had so far.

But What About All The Legislative Changes?

This has been a year marked by many changes in the housing market with the introduction of several legislated market interventions (good and bad – I’ll leave it to you to decide which ones are which). Some of the most impactful changes this year include:

• Federal Change: Mortgage amortization extension to 30 years for first time buyers who purchase a new build (otherwise, it is 25 years in most other instances)
• Provincial Change: Extending the notice period to 3 months to tenants when an owner purchaser wants to reside in a home they have purchased (keep in mind if you are a landlord, the notice period is now 4 months if wanting to use the tenanted property for your own purposes)
• Federal Change: Capital Gains changes and
• Provincial Change: The introduction of provincial restrictions for short-term rentals

With the market ever-evolving and new legislation introduced in what feels like an almost monthly basis, it is more important than ever to have an advocate on your side that is on top of the latest changes and looking out for your best interests. Reach out if you want to explore how the above changes (or others) impact your future home buying or selling situation.

Benchmark Prices & Days on Market

Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey:

• Detached = $1,523,500 / $1,647,200
• Townhouses = $846,300 / $872,600
• Apartments = $546,200 / $541,800

In the month of August it took a little longer to sell properties when compared to the previous month (29 days in August for all properties vs 25 days in July). The specific breakdown is: Detached (+1 to 33 days), Townhouses (+1 to 27 days)  and Apartments (+5 to 33 days) in July.

Is The Market Still Balanced?

To answer this question, let’s take a quick look at an important indicator – the Sales-To-Active Listing ratio which is basically a calculation of how many sales there were compared to how many active listings.

First, the basics:

• When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
• Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
• Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).

The current sales-to-active ratio indicates a “balanced” market in August 2024 at 13.7% (balanced). There are variations by property type which are as follows:

• Detached homes: 9.6%
• Townhomes: 17.6%
• Apartments: 12.2%

I discuss these numbers with clients interested in knowing how to position (leverage and timeframe) their offers on a particular property type. Exploring these numbers help to understand what has happened in the past month – not necessarily what is happening right at this moment. So, my feedback is the same – reach out to discuss the most up to date information. Last point here, keep in mind it takes several months to indicate a specific market type – e.g. it takes a few months below 12% Sales-To-Active Listing Ratio before we could say it is a Buyer’s Market.

If thinking about buying a property, reach out to discuss if now is the right time for YOU. If you are thinking about selling, reach out to review a no-obligation up-to-date evaluation of your property’s value in today’s market.

What questions do you have about the recent real estate changes and how it impacts you? Let me know with an email or text.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

August 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

August 2024 Market Update for Surrey

OVERVIEW

Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley are slightly lower compared to the same month one year ago (less than 1% difference).  Many buyers remain on the sidelines BUT well-priced homes continue to sell. Having an experienced agent on your side can make the difference when looking for your dream home or investment. So let me know what questions you need answered.

Long intros are overrated – let’s jump into the stats!!

HOW ARE WE DOING?

Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey:

• Detached = $1,529,600 / $1,663,100
• Townhouses = $848,800 / $877,500
• Apartments = $551,000 / $544,000

In the month of July it took a little longer to sell properties when compared to the previous month (29 days in July for all properties vs 25 days in June). The property-type breakdown is: Detached (32 days), Townhouses (26 days) and Apartments (28 days) in July.

Let’s take a quick look at a key indicator – the Sales-To-Active Listing ratio which is a calculation of how many sales there were compared to how many active listings in a given period. This let’s us know about the demand or “health” of the market.

SALES-TO-ACTIVE LISTING RATIO

First, the fundamentals:

• When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
• Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
• Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).

The current sales-to-active ratio for the market as a whole for July 2024 is 15.7%. Its important to note that there are variations by property type. By property type the sales to active listing ratio is as follows:

• Detached homes: 11.1% (has been in “balanced” territory since July 2023)
• Townhomes: 30.1% (has been in “Seller’s” territory all the way back to Fall 2022)
• Apartments: 24.4% (also in “Seller’s” territory since Fall 2022 with slight variations)

The above makes sense to me considering the price point of detached homes is higher combined with high interest rates and tough stress test that buyers are making purchases in the more affordable Townhome and Apartment categories.

WHAT ELSE IS NEW IN REAL ESTATE?

Some interesting things have happened in July and may have an impact on you in different ways. Here are some highlights.

• Bank of Canada reduces rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. This is the second consecutive rate cut and the next rate decision is September 4th
• Residential Tenancy Board Changes were introduced which extends the notice period to tenants to 4 months if a buyer wants to occupy the property. This has huge impacts on buyers!!! There are changes being introduced in August to mitigate the negative effects of this change on buyers, especially first-time buyers. For instance, mortgage lenders may not be able to provide financing for tenant occupied homes in these situations – which is not a good situation for you to be in

Market changes and influences will impact you in different ways. It is important to talk to someone that understands how to navigate challenging situations and will make sure you are protected every step of the way.  If looking to explore or ask questions about your situation, reach out for a no-obligation conversation. Always good hearing from you.

What questions do you have about the recent real estate changes or market? Let me know with an email or text.

July 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

July 2024 Market Update for Surrey

So here we are halfway through 2024. Wow – that happened too quickly! Summer has finally started to warm up! But has the real estate market also started warming? In this article, I’ll conduct a mini mid-year review and see how my 2024 predictions have panned out so far. You can see my 2024 market prediction here but below you’ll find a quick summary.

But first…

Benchmark prices were pretty flat in June (up less than 1%) compared to June 2023. Compared to May 2024, there was a very slight decrease (down <1%) in benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey which I’ve pulled stats separately for below. Generally, sellers have finally come to the table to list properties, increasing inventory. Buyers however may be waiting for more news from the Bank of Canada. This has increased supply which is giving current buyers choices and the ability to browse at a slower pace in many cases.

While the past 3 months has shown a willingness of sellers to list their properties, transactions (aka – sales) have been unseasonably lower than expectation and in fact is almost 30% below the 10 year average. While inventory is higher than its been since 2019, this is actually a loosening of the previously tight market conditions that have existed since Covid days. So how does this all shake out? First, let’s take a quick look at a statement from my December 2023 market prediction:

• The spring market will not be a strong as previous years but the resilience in the market will continue. We will see increased inventory as mortgages renew and more pre-sales are also listed on the market but – this increase in inventory is compared to the current low inventory levels experienced in 2023. There will be stiffer competition due to falling mortgage rates and the entrance of additional buyers looking to enter the market which will impact housing values. There will be  opportunities for the assignment of pre-sales and in some markets for Apartments and Townhouses.

In other words, I was correct but for slightly different reasons. The spring/summer market has seen increased inventory and while buyers haven’t turned up in the levels expected, well-priced homes are still selling relatively quickly. Recently the CREA also reduced their sales forecast for 2024 due to the slower sales in the first half of the year. You can check out their report here.

Here’s what I think will happen over the second half of 2024. I agree with the CREA that sales (number of transactions) will be lower than expected. Sellers will continue to list properties but at a slower pace which will keep the market in balanced territory. There will be opportunities for smart buyers who are patient and willing to work with sellers to obtain the price and (importantly) the right terms for their situations. Sellers on the other hand will need to list their properties at the RIGHT price and be patient knowing that buyers will have many options. Remember, well-priced properties are selling in around 25 days on average.

WHAT ELSE IS NEW IN REAL ESTATE? 

Some interesting things that have happened and may impact your real estate situations are listed below. There have been lots of changes over the past three months so don’t hesitate to ask how this might impact you.

June 2024

• Bank of Canada reduces rate by 0.25%. This is the first rate reduction in 4 years and brings the rate to 4.75%. The next rate decision is July 24th
• Provincial rezoning to allow up to 6 units on single detached property lots was effective June 30th

May 2024

• Short-term rental restrictions go into effect
• Capital gains changes – effective in June increasing from 1/2 to 2/3
• Interest rate decision unchanged in May

April 2024

• Amortization extended from 25 to 30 years for first time home buyers who are purchasing a new build and have insured mortgages – effective August 1,2024.
• RRSP Home Buyer Program amount has increased to $60K from $35K effective August 2024
• BC Flipping Tax for properties owned less than 2 years introduced (ie – up to 20% tax on the profits if sold within 24 months of ownership)

My mid-year review tends to be a long one but here is the short of things. The market is a living, breathing entity. The changes are real time. I am here to help navigate shifting waters and protect your interests. If you have questions or want to discuss how any of this might impact you, I am here to help.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

June 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

June 2024 Market Update for Surrey

OVERVIEW

Inventory has continued to increase with more sellers listing their homes for sale in May. Bank of Canada reduced their policy rate by .25%. All of this is positive for the market combining healthy inventory and more options for buyers. Sales however were slower than expected which has pushed inventory levels higher for the 2nd month in a row. The HPI Benchmark prices were slightly higher in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey. See the snapshot below or go to the How Does This Affect Buyers/Sellers section (below) to skip the analysis (aka – my mind going into statistics nerd mode).

THE NUMBERS

Digging  into the numbers, inventory levels (active listings) in the Fraser Valley are over 7900 which is the highest levels since September 2019. Sales in May were lower than expected with 1517 recorded transaction in MLS® – which is an increase from April but lower than the 10 year average. I mentioned in the April update that properties were selling faster with the average days on market falling for 3 consecutive months. In May, the average days on market increased for detached homes to 25 days (from 23 in April), townhouses took 20 days (up from 19 last month) and Condo apartments took 24 days to sell – up 1 from last month.

Here are the benchmark HPI prices by property type:

• Detached homes in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $1,530,200 which is a slight decrease from April 2024 but 2.6% increase from the previous year.
• Townhomes in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $853,800 which is a slight decrease from April 2024 but increase of 3.3% from the same timeframe last year.
• Apartments in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $555,100 which is also a slight decrease from the previous month but increase as measured from the previous year: +2.4%

SALES-TO-ACTIVE LISTING RATIO

When we look at the sales-to-active listing ratio I always start with laying the fundamentals:

• When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
• Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
• Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).

The current sales-to-active ratio for the market as a whole for May 2024 is 21.5% – I would still consider this as balanced with slight variations by property type. By property type the sales to active listing ratio is as follows:

• Detached homes: 17%
• Townhomes: 30.1%
• Apartments: 24.4%

SO HOW DOES THIS AFFECT BUYERS/SELLERS

The increase in inventory can be related to a few different factors, such as seasonal listings in the spring, legislation changes at the Provincial level (e.g. short term rental restrictions) and Federal level (e.g. capital gains changes). While sales have been slower the market still seems healthy. With the recent rate reduction from the Bank of Canada I don’t think we will see a huge jump in sales or prices but rather a steady pace of sales heading into the fall. The next rate decision (July 24) may have a greater impact on the market, especially if it is another small interest rate reduction. But we will have to wait to cross that bridge when we get there to see how that pans out. In the meantime, I love hearing from you – reach out if you want to know how any of the above impacts you specifically.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

May 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

May 2024 Market Update for Surrey

So… this month’s market analysis is pretty interesting. Highlights?

• Total inventory increased in the Fraser Valley – which gives buyers even more options.
• Inventory is at its highest levels in the Fraser Valley  than in the past 5 years (for March). This is good news for buyers!
• Benchmark prices are up approximately 4.6% compared to last year. Good for sellers – not so good for buyers.
• Homes also sold faster in March than in February with the average number of days on market decreasing (see below charts).
• The number of sales in March was below the 10 year average by 30%.

A mixed bag of stats in my opinion! So let’s talk about Sales-to-Active Listing ratios. First a reminder:

• When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
• Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
• Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).

Right now the market is sitting at 25.9% for the combined Sales-to-Active Listing ratio (for all property types). So you see why I say mixed bag? More inventory but small price appreciations and properties selling faster plus a Sales-to-Active ratio that is pushing more solidly into seller’s territory.

So… what does this all mean?

The market is fluid and constantly evolving. Working with an experienced REALTOR who can navigate the “noise” and see through to the right signals for a property will go a long way to getting you the best options as a buyer or a seller. Reach out and I can explain how the above might impact your particular situation. Always happy to chat.

Current Real Estate Changes

I want to share some of the relevant real estate stories from the past month. These are from articles that I’ve read that I found covered the points succinctly and evenly with insight into today’s market changes.

• Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate at 5%: What Does This Mean for Current and Potential Homeowners
• CBC – House-flipping tax legislation tabled in B.C. – up to 20% – article nicely summarizes the introduction of a BC house-flipping tax. One point I’ll make in addition to the article is a reminder that the tax is applied only to the profit if the home is sold within 2 years of ownership.

Bringing It All Home

The market is a living, changing Being in a constant state of evolution. If you are wondering “is now a good time to buy/sell” or want to know how any of this information might impact your particular circumstances, reach out. From my perspective, it will be interesting to see how the market responds to the upcoming rate decision on April 10th by the Bank of Canada – especially in combination with the higher inventory levels in the Fraser Valley this month.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

March 2024 Market Update for Surrey

March 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

Could it be an early Spring Market? What does the Real Estate GroundHog have in store for us this year?

Overall, the HPI Benchmark prices were up year-over-year and month-over-month in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey in each category of housing (Detached, Townhome & Apartments). Abbotsford also saw price gains month-over-month. There was an increase in new listings which increased inventory over all – which provides buyers with more choice! Seems like the Spring market might be off to an energetic start.

Prices are up approximately +5% for Fraser Valley¹ when compared to February 2023 (one year ago). After approximately 6 months of small price declines month-over-month, February had a small benchmark price increase as compared to January 2024 (+0.9%). As always, if you want more detail or information for a specific neighbourhood or property, reach out – always great hearing from you.

COMING IN MARCH

We are very excited to be hosting our next webinar on Saturday March 23, 2024! For early access, add your name to the registration list and I’ll be sure to send you the official details once confirmed.

Our next session covers; Finance & Insurance Goals and Home Buying Essentials. Our good friends at  Winch+Kat Financial Solutions Inc will be discussing strategies on growing wealth to achieve your financial goals. I’m excited to be discussing home buying essentials including:

• How a REALTOR^®   assists in the home buying process
• Current market analysis and predictions (includes tips)
• Overview of the home buying process (e.g. how much do you need)
• Review a home buying example

Time will be available for Questions & Answers.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

There were many changes announced for the real estate industry in February. Below is a quick summary:

• Effective April 1, 2024, first-time home buyers will now be exempt from the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) on the purchase of a home worth up to $835,000.  The threshold has increased from $500,000 to $835,000, with the first $500,000 exempt from PTT.
• The newly built home exemption threshold: This threshold now eliminates the PTT for eligible first-time home buyers on new homes up to $1,100,000 (up from the previous $750,000). Increase threshold for newly built home exemption – begins April 1, 2024.
• The Federal Government announced The First-Time Home-buyer Incentive (FTHBI) will be winding-down on March 21, 2024, which is also the last day for applications. This was a shared equity arrangement where the Government provided a portion of the down-payment for the purchase of a home in exchange for shared equity. It was not a very popular program (Source: CBC)
• Extension of the “Foreign Buyer Ban” for two more years. (Officially called the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act).  This extends the ban until January 1, 2027. There are numerous exemptions so if unsure if this applies to you send me a quick note (Source: Canada.ca)
• Inflation came in at 2.9% in January 2024, down from 3.4% in December. Economists predict the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate will decrease the overnight rate as early as June 2024. BoC will be looking to see a sustained trend in the consumer price index (CPI) before taking action. The next rate decision is March 6 and current expectation is that the rate will be held at the current rate of 5%
• The BC provincial government has introduced the BC Home Flipping Tax – The tax will apply to income from B.C. properties sold on or after January 1, 2025 if the property has been owned for 2 years or less unless an exemption applies.

Thanks for reading. Reach out with any questions or comments. I love hearing from you.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

February 2024 Market Update for Fraser Valley

February 2024 Market Update for City of Surrey

Here is the January 2024 market overview. Starting this month I’ve incorporated more of the changes you have been asking for! You will find an overview for the Fraser Valley as a whole and a separate breakout for the City of Surrey. Hope you like the change. Overall, benchmark prices are up 5% year-over-year but has been down slightly in each of the past 6 months. If wanting details for your specific neighbourhood you know how to find me.

Let’s go!

The year over year numbers show price appreciation for all categories of housing in the Fraser Valley. Prices are up approximately +5% for the Fraser Valley¹ when compared to January 2023 (one year ago). When you look further into the numbers you can see some differences. For instance, Detached homes and Townhouses have experienced small price declines now in each of the past six months… down almost 6% from the July 2023 peak. Apartments in the Fraser Valley have remained relatively flat for the past two months reflecting some resilience for this category of housing. As always, if you want more detail or information for a specific neighbourhood or property, reach out – always great hearing from you.

QUICK JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• We held our First-Time Home Buyer webinar on January 25. The turnout was beyond our expectations and I was privileged to present an overview and advice for those interested in the real estate market. Our next session will be announced soon. Join us by sending me a message and I can make sure you get an invite (there is no cost). We gave away two pairs of free tickets to some lucky participants during the session to the BC Home and Garden Show. Congrats to the winners! I was fortunate to share the stage with the very talented and knowledgeable Katrina Madarang of Winch+Kat Financial Solutions. I’m looking forward to our next joint session! Join us.
• Check out this property highlight of the week. This property is a double sized lot (12,000SF lot!) in Mission BC listed at $995,000.  If interested in viewing send me a message.

Lastly, the BC Home and Garden Show is February 9 – 11, 2024. I’ll be at the show on February 10th at BC Place Stadium – if you see me there please stop me and say hi!

SO IS IT A SELLER’S OR BUYER’S MARKET?

An explanation I cover almost every post:

Sales-to-Active Listing Ratio: Simply put, this ratio is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of active listings for a given period (usually monthly) and tells us if we are experiencing a Buyer’s or Seller’s market.

• When this factor is below 12% for a sustained period there is usually downward pressures on home prices (think “buyer’s” market).
• Between 12-20% is considered a balanced market.
• Over 20% for sustained periods generally provides upward pressure on home prices (think “seller’s” market).

January 2024 Sales to Active Listing Ratio

• Detached homes for the Fraser Valley have a sales-to-active listing ratio of 15.8% and  13.5% for The city of Surrey. This keeps detached homes in balanced territory
• Townhouses for the Fraser Valley have a sales-to-active listing ratio of 33.2% and 29.3% for The city of Surrey. This keeps Townhouses in seller’s territory
• Apartments for the Fraser Valley have a sales-to-active listing ratio of 26.5% and 27.5% for The city of Surrey. This keeps apartments also in seller’s territory

Looking forward to hearing from you and hope to see you at the BC Home And Garden Show.

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock

January 2024 Fraser Valley Market Overview

January 2024 City of Surrey Market Overview