Recent Real Estate headlines show increased inventory and the uncertainty caused from economic disruptions.
Tariffs? Yikes.
Counter-tariffs? Yikes again.
Changing global norms? How many “Yikes” can I put in this article?
But headlines only tell part of the story. The questions I’m hearing regularly from my clients right now are:
Is it the right time for me to SELL?
Is it the right time for me to BUY?
The real estate market is still active – well-priced, desirable homes still sell quickly. But timing the market perfectly is impossible. Whether you should buy or sell this year depends on your personal circumstances. Acting purposefully — but wisely—can make all the difference this spring season. Some things to consider:
Your own personal real estate goals
Your/Your family’s needs (e.g. upsize or downsize)
Mortgage management
Desired quality of life for your family
Renting vs. owning (sometimes renting is a better option)
Do you have the equity needed to make the move
Preparedness for moving stress
Avoid relying solely on news, forums, or social media for your real estate decisions. For personalized guidance, or to review your situation with professional perspective – reach out for a no-obligation chat.
While there is a lot of turbulence in today’s market, you don’t have to navigate it alone.
January continued a trend we saw last year where sellers are listing their properties in healthy numbers and buyers are cautious but active. This results in a slower pace of sales and increasing inventory and has thus far kept price pressure down. Prices remain relatively flat (or very small change) when compared to last year.
With overall economic instability it is understandable why buyers remain cautiously optimistic but waiting to see which way the winds will blow. There are lots of opportunities out there and many buyers are taking advantage of the increased selection. If you are wondering if it is a good time to buy or sell, reach out for a conversation.
Barring any sudden shocks to the system (e.g. tariffs), I still anticipate the upcoming spring market to be more active than last year. Time will tell if I’m right.
SO HOW’S THE MARKET?
Prices in the Fraser Valley remain relatively flat when compared to last year with a slight combined decrease of approximately 2% across all categories. Detached and Townhouses remain mostly flat and a more concentrated decrease in the apartment category (-1.2%). My thinking is this would be related to the higher amount of inventory and selection in the apartment category.
SOME RECENT REAL ESTATE CHANGE REMINDERS
A few changes for you to be aware of:
Mortgage Changes went into effect on December 15th, 2024 that may make buying a home easier for you, such as:
Change to the down payment structure which reduces the minimum down payment required for properties over $1M (technically this is about the change to mortgage insurance but the effect is the same)
Amortization changes that now allow 30 year amortizations for new build and first-time home buyers. This increases buying power by approximately 8-9% for the typical buyer
Tenant notification changes may impact your timelines and ability to purchase certain properties depending on your situation (3 month notice required for tenanted properties)
Reminder: Short-term (owned less than 2 years) flipping rules went into effect on January 1
Too many changes to review in detail so here’s a reminder to talk to a trusted real estate professional to understand how these changes may impact your buying or selling plans.
Are you interested in learning about how these changes impact you specifically? Set up a no-obligation conversation here.
THE MARKET NUMBERS
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey compared to last year:
Properties took a little longer to sell in January. By property type for the Fraser Valley:
Detached +11 to 56 days
Townhouses +2 to 36 days
Apartments +3 to 42 days
Overall, the market is remains in balanced/neutral territory but detached homes are sliding into buyer’s territory. We recently had the Bank of Canada reduce the policy interest rate FOR THE 6TH TIME! Usually this would spark the real estate market and bring buyers out of the woodwork. But it is clear buyers are taking a cautious approach due to the earlier mentioned market instability. With that said, I remain of the mindsight that the market will pick up in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025.
CONCLUSION
There are always opportunities – so if you are curious about what this means for your real estate plans – let’s talk.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
After the October jump in sales, sparked in part by the recent interest rate reductions, it looks like November returned closer to seasonal numbers. With upcoming mortgage changes set to come into effect on December 15th (see article here) and an upcoming December 11th rate decision from the Bank of Canada, I still believe that the market is aligning for a more robust spring market than we’ve seen in recent memory.
If looking to buy, now may be the time. If looking to sell, it may be good to wait until spring depending on the property type and location. With that said, let’s take a look at the November numbers.
MARKET STATS
Prices in the Fraser Valley remain relatively flat when compared to last year with a slight decrease of approx. 0.2% across all categories.
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey compared to last year:
Properties are taking a little longer to sell in November with the average for all property types being 39 days for the Fraser Valley/Surrey when compared to the previous month (+6 days compared to October 2024). By property type for the Fraser Valley:
Detached +9 to 44 days
Townhouses +5 to 34 days
Apartments +5 to 37 days
Overall, the market remains in balanced/neutral territory. Even with the slower pace of sales, the lower rate of new listings shrunk total inventory and kept the market in balanced territory. With the potential of future Bank of Canada interest rate reductions and upcoming legislative changes, my current thought is that the market will stay in balanced territory and potentially swing to a sellers market in Spring 2025.
With that said, there are always opportunities – so if you are considering getting into the market, speak to a trusted real estate expert to fully explore your situation.
THINKING ABOUT BUYING IN 2025?
A few changes for you to be aware of:
Mortgage Changes go into effect on December 15th that may make buying a home easier for you, such as:
Change to the down payment structure which reduces the minimum down payment required for properties over $1M (technically this change is about the expansion of mortgage insurance, but the effect is the same)
Amortization changes that now allow 30 year amortizations for new builds and first-time home buyers. This increases buying power by approximately 8-9% for the typical buyer
Tenant notification changes may impact your timelines and ability to purchase certain properties depending on your situation
Reminder: Short-term flipping rules (owned less than 2 years) come into effect on January 1, 2025
Real Estate industry changes are fluid and have many variables that may or may not impact your personal situation.
My best advice, as always, is to talk to a trusted real estate professional to understand how these changes may impact your 2025 buying plans.
Are you interested in learning about how these changes impact you specifically? Set up a no-obligation conversation here.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock.
This is a question I get regularly from my clients. My client-specific guidance always takes into account their unique situations. So I encourage you to reach out or to talk to a trusted real estate professional to discuss your specific circumstances and opportunities.
However, today’s real estate market provides some general opportunities where my short answer to this question is “Yes – it is a uniquely good time to buy”. Read on to find out why.
MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION EXTENSION
Previously I wrote about the mortgage amortization extension to 30 years (up from 25). You can see that post here. The basics: Effective December 15th, the maximum amortization period is extended to 30 years for newly constructed homes and for first-time home buyers. This change has two potential impacts:
By extending the amortization period, the income required to qualify for a home purchase decreases. This means more clients can meet the necessary mortgage criteria.
Clients will experience a decrease in their monthly payments, making homeownership more financially manageable. For instance, on a $600,000 purchase, the monthly payment could drop by approximately $250, providing greater flexibility in budgeting.
MORTGAGE INSURANCE CAP INCREASE
Recently, the Federal government has announced, effective December 15th, the mortgage insurance cap is increased from $1M to $1.5M. Without getting into the details, by increasing the cap, more buyers are able to purchase a home with a lower down payment and can still qualify for mortgage insurance.
An example: The minimum down payment for a $1M home goes from $200,000 on December 14th or earlier to $75,000 on December 15th. This change allows more people to enter the market with a smaller initial investment. This is only part of the cost of home ownership but it is a significant change that many will find beneficial.
BoC Interest Rates
INTEREST RATES
Add the above changes with the current lower(ing) interest rate environment and you can really start to see the picture forming. As of this writing the Bank of Canada overnight rate is 3.75%, down from 5% just 3 months ago. The next rate decision is December 11th and while it is too early to indicate what they will do, it is unlikely to result in an increase in the rate.
CURRENT INVENTORY
Need more? Currently the lower pace of sales in the Fraser Valley has increased the available housing inventory to the highest levels since 2019 (7890 available units in September 2024 vs 7672 units in June 2019). This means there are more choices available for buyers and an opportunity for buyers (in many cases) to take their time to find the right property.
SO IS IT A GOOD TIME TO BUY?
So what am I saying? All of the above combines in a way as to create favourable conditions for buyers. Well-priced homes in desirable locations are still selling quickly. But if there was ever a time where I would say “now is a good time to buy”, this is it.
If you are looking to discuss your specific situation and how these (or other) changes affect you, reach out.
As a full-time REALTOR® I understand the importance of having a professional looking out for your interests. Send me an email or my calendar is here if wanting to book a no obligation conversation. Happy House Hunting.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
There have been many (many, many) changes to the housing market at both a provincial and federal level in 2024. A trio of recent changes and market dynamics come together in such a way that provides opportunities to home buyers.
To keep things simple, I’ll review each change separately. This should be helpful to those buyers who have been undecided about the market and looking for situation-specific information.
Today, let’s focus on mortgage amortization changes. As always, I recommend reaching out to a trusted realtor or mortgage broker to discuss your specific situation.
MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION: The basics
Mortgage amortization refers to the amount of time allocated for paying off the entire mortgage. In most cases, this is restricted to a maximum of 25 years. Obviously then, the longer the amortization period, the lower the monthly payments. There are some differences between insured vs uninsured mortgages but the distinctions aren’t important for the current topic points.
30 YEAR MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION: The change
Effective December 15th, the maximum amortization period is extended to 30 years for newly constructed homes and for first-time home buyers. This change has two potential impacts:
By extending the amortization period, the income required to qualify for a home purchase decreases. This means more clients can meet the necessary mortgage criteria.
Clients will experience a decrease in their monthly payments, making homeownership more financially manageable. (For instance, on a $600,000 purchase, the monthly payment could drop by approximately $240/mth, providing greater flexibility in budgeting).
THE VERDICT
It’s important to note that extending the amortization period means the payer will ultimately pay more for interest costs over the life of the mortgage. It will be important to plan for ways to reduce this expense; For example by accelerating payments or making occasional lump sum payments where the mortgage terms allow).
But the benefit of this change is important to consider when looking at home purchasing options as it will allow buyers who may have previously had limited options to explore more possibilities that previously may have been out of reach.
HAVE QUESTIONS?
If you or someone you know is wondering how this change impacts you, let’s connect.
Trevor, can you sum up the market in one sentence? Sure – Transitory real estate market stalls with buyers remaining on the sidelines, creating opportunity for others. How’d I do?
SUMMARY
Overall HPI Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley and Surrey remain relatively flat with a slight decrease of approx. 1% compared to last year. As seen over the past few months, there was an increase in inventory due to a slower sales pace resulting in properties being on the market longer. This is providing buyers with opportunities.
THE MARKET
Prices in the Fraser Valley remain relatively flat when compared to last year with a slight decrease of approx. 1%. There are pocket areas of opportunities for buyers, such as detached homes in Mission (down -5% compared to last year). Detached and Townhome property types in the Fraser Valley experienced a slight dip in prices when compared to last month. Condo apartments actually had a small increase (+0.4%) compared to the previous month. But where are the opportunities? Drilling into the numbers here are the areas where there may be current opportunities:
Detached homes in Surrey & Mission have experienced an approximate -4.5% HPI price decrease compared to last year
Townhouses in North Delta have experienced an approximate -4.6% HPI price decrease compared to last year
Apartments in Abbotsford (specifically Central Abbotsford/Downtown) have experienced an approximate -5.7% HPI price decrease compared to last year
BENCHMARK PRICES & DAYS ON MARKET
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey compared to last year:
Properties are on the market a little longer with the average for all property types being 36 days for the Fraser Valley/Surrey when compared to the previous month (+5 days compared to August). By property type for the Fraser Valley:
Detached (+2 to 38 days)
Townhouses (+2 to 30 days)
Apartments (+5 to 37 days).
Overall, the market is on the edge of becoming a buyer’s market. With the potential for future Bank of Canada interest rate reductions and upcoming legislative changes, my current thought is that the market will shift back into balanced territory before ultimately swinging to a seller’s market in 2025. A big unknown is the upcoming provincial election – more on that in the December newsletter. With that said, there are current opportunities – so if you are considering getting into the market, speak to a trusted real estate expert to fully explore your situation.
OTHER FACTORS
If you are looking to get into the market, here are a few things for you to consider as these changes could have an impact on your property buying or selling plans.
Bank of Canada lowers its overnight rate to 4.25% in September which is the third consecutive rate reduction this year. There are only two more rate decisions in 2024, with the next rate decision being on October 25th
Mortgage Amortizations have been extended to 30 years for two buyer groups: Newly constructed homes and First-time home buyers (this will lower your monthly payment but increases the amount of interest paid over the mortgage lifetime)
The cap for mortgage insurance has increased to $1.5M (previously $1M) effective December 15th. (see below for an example of how this helps buyers)
Example: The below chart outlines the CURRENT minimum down payment required for different purchase prices (up to $500K, up to $1M, over $1M, $1.5M). The second chart outlines the minimum down payment required under the NEW STRUCTURE effective December 15th.
Minimum down payment – Current Structure
Purchase price up to $500,000
Purchase price
$999,999
Purchase price
$1M
Purchase price
$1.5M
5% for the portion of the purchase price up to $500,000
$25,000
$25,000
n/a
n/a
10% for the portion above $500K but less and $999,999
n/a
$50,000
n/a
n/a
20% required for $1M plus
n/a
n/a
$200,000
$300,000
Total down payment required
$25,000
$75,000
$200,000
$300,000
Minimum down payment – New Structure effective
December 15
Purchase price up to $500,000
Purchase price $1M
Purchase price
$1.5M
5% for the portion of the purchase price up to $500,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
10% for the portion above $500K but less than $1.5M
n/a
$50,000
$100,000
Total down payment required
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
Essentially, the minimum down payment for a $1.5M property goes from being $300,000 under the current system to $125,000 after December 15th, 2024. Or another example – properties priced at $1M go from $200,000 to $75,000 minimum down payments after December 15th.
If you are looking to discuss your specific situation and how these (or other) changes affect you, don’t hesitate to reach out.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
Happy first week of school! What a hectic week – but good to see all the little ones back to a routine.
Let’s jump right into things – there’s a lot to cover for August. So without further ado…
The HPI Benchmark prices remains relatively flat (less than 1% change in either direction) in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey. The market continues to be in “balanced” territory with higher available inventory and a slower pace of sales. This gives buyers more selection but also speaks to the importance of pricing your property correctly if you’re a seller.
In the previous two months, there have been two rate cuts by the Bank of Canada to their overnight lending rate. Even with those two cuts, the number of sales transactions remained almost 30% below the 10 year average in the Fraser Valley. On September 4th, the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight rate once again, and currently sits at 4.25%. According to BC Real Estate Association forecasts, this sets the stage for a more robust fall season and I tend to agree based on the increased number of contacts I’ve had so far.
But What About All The Legislative Changes?
This has been a year marked by many changes in the housing market with the introduction of several legislated market interventions (good and bad – I’ll leave it to you to decide which ones are which). Some of the most impactful changes this year include:
Federal Change: Mortgage amortization extension to 30 years for first time buyers who purchase a new build (otherwise, it is 25 years in most other instances)
Provincial Change: Extending the notice period to 3 months to tenants when an owner purchaser wants to reside in a home they have purchased (keep in mind if you are a landlord, the notice period is now 4 months if wanting to use the tenanted property for your own purposes)
Federal Change: Capital Gains changes and
Provincial Change: The introduction of provincial restrictions for short-term rentals
With the market ever-evolving and new legislation introduced in what feels like an almost monthly basis, it is more important than ever to have an advocate on your side that is on top of the latest changes and looking out for your best interests. Reach out if you want to explore how the above changes (or others) impact your future home buying or selling situation.
Benchmark Prices & Days on Market
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey:
Detached = $1,523,500 / $1,647,200
Townhouses = $846,300 / $872,600
Apartments = $546,200 / $541,800
In the month of August it took a little longer to sell properties when compared to the previous month (29 days in August for all properties vs 25 days in July). The specific breakdown is: Detached (+1 to 33 days), Townhouses (+1 to 27 days) and Apartments (+5 to 33 days) in July.
Is The Market Still Balanced?
To answer this question, let’s take a quick look at an important indicator – the Sales-To-Active Listing ratio which is basically a calculation of how many sales there were compared to how many active listings.
First, the basics:
When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).
The current sales-to-active ratio indicates a “balanced” market in August 2024 at 13.7% (balanced). There are variations by property type which are as follows:
Detached homes: 9.6%
Townhomes: 17.6%
Apartments: 12.2%
I discuss these numbers with clients interested in knowing how to position (leverage and timeframe) their offers on a particular property type. Exploring these numbers help to understand what has happened in the past month – not necessarily what is happening right at this moment. So, my feedback is the same – reach out to discuss the most up to date information. Last point here, keep in mind it takes several months to indicate a specific market type – e.g. it takes a few months below 12% Sales-To-Active Listing Ratio before we could say it is a Buyer’s Market.
If thinking about buying a property, reach out to discuss if now is the right time for YOU. If you are thinking about selling, reach out to review a no-obligation up-to-date evaluation of your property’s value in today’s market.
What questions do you have about the recent real estate changes and how it impacts you? Let me know with an email or text.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley are slightly lower compared to the same month one year ago (less than 1% difference). Many buyers remain on the sidelines BUT well-priced homes continue to sell. Having an experienced agent on your side can make the difference when looking for your dream home or investment. So let me know what questions you need answered.
Long intros are overrated – let’s jump into the stats!!
HOW ARE WE DOING?
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley / City of Surrey:
Detached = $1,529,600 / $1,663,100
Townhouses = $848,800 / $877,500
Apartments = $551,000 / $544,000
In the month of July it took a little longer to sell properties when compared to the previous month (29 days in July for all properties vs 25 days in June). The property-type breakdown is: Detached (32 days), Townhouses (26 days) and Apartments (28 days) in July.
Let’s take a quick look at a key indicator – the Sales-To-Active Listing ratio which is a calculation of how many sales there were compared to how many active listings in a given period. This let’s us know about the demand or “health” of the market.
SALES-TO-ACTIVE LISTING RATIO
First, the fundamentals:
When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).
The current sales-to-active ratio for the market as a whole for July 2024 is 15.7%. Its important to note that there are variations by property type. By property type the sales to active listing ratio is as follows:
Detached homes: 11.1% (has been in “balanced” territory since July 2023)
Townhomes: 30.1% (has been in “Seller’s” territory all the way back to Fall 2022)
Apartments: 24.4% (also in “Seller’s” territory since Fall 2022 with slight variations)
The above makes sense to me considering the price point of detached homes is higher combined with high interest rates and tough stress test that buyers are making purchases in the more affordable Townhome and Apartment categories.
WHAT ELSE IS NEW IN REAL ESTATE?
Some interesting things have happened in July and may have an impact on you in different ways. Here are some highlights.
Bank of Canada reduces rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. This is the second consecutive rate cut and the next rate decision is September 4th
Residential Tenancy Board Changes were introduced which extends the notice period to tenants to 4 months if a buyer wants to occupy the property. This has huge impacts on buyers!!! There are changes being introduced in August to mitigate the negative effects of this change on buyers, especially first-time buyers. For instance, mortgage lenders may not be able to provide financing for tenant occupied homes in these situations – which is not a good situation for you to be in
Market changes and influences will impact you in different ways. It is important to talk to someone that understands how to navigate challenging situations and will make sure you are protected every step of the way. If looking to explore or ask questions about your situation, reach out for a no-obligation conversation. Always good hearing from you.
What questions do you have about the recent real estate changes or market? Let me know with an email or text.
So here we are halfway through 2024. Wow – that happened too quickly! Summer has finally started to warm up! But has the real estate market also started warming? In this article, I’ll conduct a mini mid-year review and see how my 2024 predictions have panned out so far. You can see my 2024 market prediction here but below you’ll find a quick summary.
But first…
Benchmark prices were pretty flat in June (up less than 1%) compared to June 2023. Compared to May 2024, there was a very slight decrease (down <1%) in benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey which I’ve pulled stats separately for below. Generally, sellers have finally come to the table to list properties, increasing inventory. Buyers however may be waiting for more news from the Bank of Canada. This has increased supply which is giving current buyers choices and the ability to browse at a slower pace in many cases.
While the past 3 months has shown a willingness of sellers to list their properties, transactions (aka – sales) have been unseasonably lower than expectation and in fact is almost 30% below the 10 year average. While inventory is higher than its been since 2019, this is actually a loosening of the previously tight market conditions that have existed since Covid days. So how does this all shake out? First, let’s take a quick look at a statement from my December 2023 market prediction:
The spring market will not be a strong as previous years but the resilience in the market will continue. We will see increased inventory as mortgages renew and more pre-sales are also listed on the market but – this increase in inventory is compared to the current low inventory levels experienced in 2023. There will be stiffer competition due to falling mortgage rates and the entrance of additional buyers looking to enter the market which will impact housing values. There will be opportunities for the assignment of pre-sales and in some markets for Apartments and Townhouses.
In other words, I was correct but for slightly different reasons. The spring/summer market has seen increased inventory and while buyers haven’t turned up in the levels expected, well-priced homes are still selling relatively quickly. Recently the CREA also reduced their sales forecast for 2024 due to the slower sales in the first half of the year. You can check out their report here.
Here’s what I think will happen over the second half of 2024. I agree with the CREA that sales (number of transactions) will be lower than expected. Sellers will continue to list properties but at a slower pace which will keep the market in balanced territory. There will be opportunities for smart buyers who are patient and willing to work with sellers to obtain the price and (importantly) the right terms for their situations. Sellers on the other hand will need to list their properties at the RIGHT price and be patient knowing that buyers will have many options. Remember, well-priced properties are selling in around 25 days on average.
WHAT ELSE IS NEW IN REAL ESTATE?
Some interesting things that have happened and may impact your real estate situations are listed below. There have been lots of changes over the past three months so don’t hesitate to ask how this might impact you.
June 2024
Bank of Canada reduces rate by 0.25%. This is the first rate reduction in 4 years and brings the rate to 4.75%. The next rate decision is July 24th
Provincial rezoning to allow up to 6 units on single detached property lots was effective June 30th
May 2024
Short-term rental restrictions go into effect
Capital gains changes – effective in June increasing from 1/2 to 2/3
Interest rate decision unchanged in May
April 2024
Amortization extended from 25 to 30 years for first time home buyers who are purchasing a new build and have insured mortgages – effective August 1,2024.
RRSP Home Buyer Program amount has increased to $60K from $35K effective August 2024
BC Flipping Tax for properties owned less than 2 years introduced (ie – up to 20% tax on the profits if sold within 24 months of ownership)
My mid-year review tends to be a long one but here is the short of things. The market is a living, breathing entity. The changes are real time. I am here to help navigate shifting waters and protect your interests. If you have questions or want to discuss how any of this might impact you, I am here to help.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
Inventory has continued to increase with more sellers listing their homes for sale in May. Bank of Canada reduced their policy rate by .25%. All of this is positive for the market combining healthy inventory and more options for buyers. Sales however were slower than expected which has pushed inventory levels higher for the 2nd month in a row. The HPI Benchmark prices were slightly higher in the Fraser Valley and in the City of Surrey. See the snapshot below or go to the How Does This Affect Buyers/Sellers section (below) to skip the analysis (aka – my mind going into statistics nerd mode).
THE NUMBERS
Digging into the numbers, inventory levels (active listings) in the Fraser Valley are over 7900 which is the highest levels since September 2019. Sales in May were lower than expected with 1517 recorded transaction in MLS® – which is an increase from April but lower than the 10 year average. I mentioned in the April update that properties were selling faster with the average days on market falling for 3 consecutive months. In May, the average days on market increased for detached homes to 25 days (from 23 in April), townhouses took 20 days (up from 19 last month) and Condo apartments took 24 days to sell – up 1 from last month.
Here are the benchmark HPI prices by property type:
Detached homes in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $1,530,200 which is a slight decrease from April 2024 but 2.6% increase from the previous year.
Townhomes in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $853,800 which is a slight decrease from April 2024 but increase of 3.3% from the same timeframe last year.
Apartments in the Fraser Valley benchmark price is now $555,100 which is also a slight decrease from the previous month but increase as measured from the previous year: +2.4%
SALES-TO-ACTIVE LISTING RATIO
When we look at the sales-to-active listing ratio I always start with laying the fundamentals:
When the ratio is between 12-20%, the market (and prices) are balanced.
Over 20% for a sustained period and there is upward pressure on prices. (Seller’s Market)
Below 12% for a sustained period and there is usually downward pressure on prices (Buyer’s Market).
The current sales-to-active ratio for the market as a whole for May 2024 is 21.5% – I would still consider this as balanced with slight variations by property type. By property type the sales to active listing ratio is as follows:
Detached homes: 17%
Townhomes: 30.1%
Apartments: 24.4%
SO HOW DOES THIS AFFECT BUYERS/SELLERS
The increase in inventory can be related to a few different factors, such as seasonal listings in the spring, legislation changes at the Provincial level (e.g. short term rental restrictions) and Federal level (e.g. capital gains changes). While sales have been slower the market still seems healthy. With the recent rate reduction from the Bank of Canada I don’t think we will see a huge jump in sales or prices but rather a steady pace of sales heading into the fall. The next rate decision (July 24) may have a greater impact on the market, especially if it is another small interest rate reduction. But we will have to wait to cross that bridge when we get there to see how that pans out. In the meantime, I love hearing from you – reach out if you want to know how any of the above impacts you specifically.
1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock
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