July Market Update

FRASER VALLEY BUYER’S MARKET: IT’S COMPLICATED. 

As always – jump right to the bottom for the market snapshot or read on for a more detailed commentary.

South of the Fraser River things remained in Buyer’s Market territory in July… BUT…

There is always nuance to statements and headlines such as the above and in this case the nuance is that the Fraser Valley (Surrey, Langley, Mission, Abbotsford) are in buyer territory depending on which property type and location is being reviewed. For instance, detached homes are squarely in buyer’s territory in Surrey, Abbotsford and Mission for the past few months. But Townhomes are “balanced” meaning prices are flat in the valley. You can break this down even further when you look at condo apartments with one bedroom apartments dipping into buyer’s territory and with two bedroom apartments remaining in Balanced territory.

One way to measure this is using the sales to active listing ratio (SAR). A ratio is below 12% for a prolonged time indicates a buyer’s market (think slower sales and declining prices). A ratio between 12-20% would be considered balanced or pricing that is flat. Above 20% for a prolonged period is indicative of a seller’s market. The ratio for the Fraser Valley as a whole sits at 11% which is why you will see headlines declaring a buyer’s market.

But what is really happening in the market? And most importantly – What does this mean for you?

LET’S TALK STRATEGY

Earlier we talked about SAR as a way to measure what is happening in the market. When reviewing these ratios for apartments in the Fraser Valley, 2 bedroom apartments have remained in balanced territory (ratios between 13 – 16%) over the past several months but 1 bedroom apartments have stayed in buyer’s territory (10 – 12%). So you can see you might start having slightly different approaches for these property types. Going even further, this ratio will be different for each city and even for specific city-neighbourhoods.

Keep in mind this is only one metric that can be used but it is an important one. When you start to combine this with other factors such as average days on market and the total inventory you can start to tailor an approach that makes the most sense for the specific property type.

Your strategy will change depending on what you are looking to buy or sell. Make sure you are working with someone that understands these differences and can help you develop the strategy that is going to get you the best results.

SO HOW IS THE MARKET?

In the Fraser Valley, active listings are high (approximately 50% higher than the 10 year average at 10,650). This gives buyers lots of choice in inventory and the ability to take their time. There is speculation on whether this the “new normal” or just a reflection of higher interest rates and tariff uncertainty causing a slower pace of sales ultimately increasing inventory. Again, I caution those who try to sum up the market with a headline or single talking point. “The Market” is in a constant state of flux where the variables change on a daily basis. The current market conditions will not exist forever (for the better or for the worse). So my best advise for those looking to transact in today’s market is to stay cool, assemble you real estate dream team, ask lots of questions and follow the advise laid out in this article which I’ll sum up as “the right time to transact in the market is when it is right for YOU”.

Last point: Last month there were fewer new listings than the previous months. Some boards have started to call this a “shift” in the market with more buyer’s coming off the sidelines, sales increasing and inventory decreasing. Buyers are saturated with information – there are so many information sources and it is hard to figure out what is real and what is noise. My most trusted buyers understand the feedback and information I provide (getting through the noise) and aren’t afraid to ask me questions or raise new information – this helps us both to dispel misinformation but also to make sure our strategy is on track.

So if you are looking at some data point or article and really not sure how this might impact you, please reach out and let’s have a chat. The market is changing… but the market is always changing. I value all the conversations and information that are shared with me so my very last point (I promise this time) – thank you for letting me be a part of your journey.

JULY OBSERVATIONS:

• INVENTORY: There was a slower pace of new listings in July than the previous couple months (July: 3204 vs 3358 & 3683 in June & May respectively) and very similar to the same time last year (3181) – or only +0.7% higher this year. This is probably a reflection of factors such as the traditional seasonal summer time listing lull
  • However, if this trend holds out, the current “balanced/healthy” level of inventory will be reduced and we may start to see prices creeping up again. I’m keeping my eye on it (of course)
• NUMBER OF SALES: There was a small uptick in the number of sales in most categories over the past couple of months with some areas seeing a jump. For instance, while most areas of the Fraser Valley were slightly down in number of sales year to year, Chilliwack was 8.9% higher than this time last year for number of sales. Apartments in Chilliwack in particular jumped by 44% compared to the same month last year
• HOME PRICES: Prices were down across most categories compared to same time last year. In Surrey prices are down 4.4% – 6.1% compared to last year depending on property type. In Abbotsford the range is 2% – 5.3% depending on property type. Mission is 1.5% – 5.4% lower than same timeframe last year – again depending on property type.
• EXPECTATIONS: Many Buyers and sellers have opposing positions. This is true most of the time but currently there seems to be more of a mismatch between seller expectations and buyer’s expectations. Well-priced homes in good locations continue to sell quickly in most cases but it takes two to tango. If the dancers don’t know the right moves we end up with dancers who clumsily bump into each other rather than come to an agreement in a choreographed dance. Trust your choreographer (aka – Realtor) to help get you there.

If you want perspective or insights on your specific area or answers your real estate questions don’t hesitate to reach out.

ESSENTIAL MARKET INSIGHTS

• Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision: In its most recent rate decision the BoC held its overnight rate at 2.75%. While most economists expect at least one additional cut to the rate this year, the fact the rate has remained unchanged in the last 3 decisions is giving some buyers confidence.
• No GST For First-Time Home Buyers: First-time home buyers can save up to $50,000 on the GST for newly built homes priced up to $1 million as of May 27, 2025. There’s a partial rebate for new homes up to $1.5 million. Many developers are offering additional incentives or special financing for an added boost on newly constructed properties

Even if you’re not ready to make a move, knowing these updates helps you to plan smarter for months ahead.

SOME REMINDERS

Short-term Home Ownership Rules (Provincial) went into effect on January 1, 2025. If you sell a property you have owned for less than 2 years you may have to pay a tax of up to 20% on the profit from the sale. Keep in mind this is separate from the Federal Anti-Flipping rules which may impact the sale if you have owned the property for less than 1 year. There are a variety of exemptions and rules that can impact your scenario. If you are considering selling and are unsure which rules may apply, give me a call.

Home Buyer’s Guide:  As you start to explore purchasing a home, especially if this is your first time get a copy of our Home Buyer’s Guide. Inside are up to date changes that might impact a property buyer such as GST and financing considerations and a property checklist.

To get a copy of the Home Buying Guide, click here.

Surrey Combined Market Stats

Abbotsford Market Stats

1 – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board consists of the communities of Abbotsford, Langley, Mission, North Delta, Surrey and White Rock